Examining the Link between Education and Total Fertility Rate in Pakistan: An Analysis of Time Series Data
Keywords:
Total fertility rate, education, time series analysis, ARDL test, PakistanAbstract
The study endeavors to explore the correlation between education and the total fertility rate in Pakistan, utilizing time series data spanning from 1990 to 2021. Education is identified as a notable influencer of the total fertility rate. However, previous literature lacks a conclusive relationship between education and the total fertility rate. Employing econometric and statistical techniques, the first step involves assessing data stationarity through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Based on this analysis, all variables are determined to be either at I(0) or I(1), prompting the utilization of the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag technique by the researchers. The model probes into the impact of education on the total fertility rate, considering the total fertility rate as the dependent variable. The independent variables encompass education, population by age, self-employed females, completeness of birth registration, and the proportion of females in senior management positions within firms. Primary education and the share of employed females in senior management within firms exhibit a negative and significant impact on the total fertility rate. Conversely, population by age, self-employed females, and the completeness of birth registration display a positive and significant influence on the total fertility rate. Education emerges as a pivotal factor in reducing the fertility rate, with better-educated women often securing higher-paying jobs, making the opportunity cost of childcare more significant for them.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Hina Ali, Dr. Syed Inaam Ullah Shah
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